Por Nestor Ikeda
Mexico is likely the country most affected by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed protectionist measures, but smaller nations like El Salvador could also face significant challenges. While Mexico has suggested possible retaliatory actions, it is unlikely to risk escalating into a trade war with the United States.
Trump’s tariffs aim to protect U.S. industries and address issues like illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Proposed measures include a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada to pressure these nations into stronger border enforcement and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports to limit the export of fentanyl-related chemicals.
The impact of Trump’s policies would ripple through Latin America, causing business closures, rising unemployment, and uncertainty among producers. Mexico, the U.S.’s largest trading partner, could face economic strain, particularly in industries like automotive manufacturing, which heavily depend on U.S. exports. Disruptions to integrated supply chains could further complicate production and distribution.
For El Salvador, the effects would be particularly severe due to its reliance on remittances, which contribute nearly $9 billion annually—25% of its GDP. Trump has indicated potential restrictions on remittances, such as requiring senders to be legal U.S. residents and setting monthly limits. Such measures would significantly reduce this crucial income source.
On Thanksgiving Day, Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed bilateral relations, though no breakthroughs were reported. Across the region, governments are expressing concern and preparing for the economic uncertainty these tariffs could create.
The proposed policies would not only strain U.S.-Mexico trade but could also disrupt broader Latin American economies, forcing nations to navigate a more volatile trade landscape while addressing domestic impacts on industries, jobs, and currency stability.
By Nestor Ikeda
A Peruvian AP Reporter (Ret) in Washington, DC
